Low rainfall in places like Mexico, India and Ivory Coast could lead to lighter sacks of candy for trick-or-treaters this Halloween, as disappointing sugar and cocoa harvests have pushed up candy prices.

The price of candy is up 7.5 per cent from last year and 20 per cent from 2021, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That is a steeper climb than inflation overall, and has been driven by a spike in the prices of crucial ingredients such as sugar and cocoa, which are the highest they have been in global wholesale markets in decades.

That is because of poor harvests stemming from hot, dry weather and the high cost of fertiliser, among other factors. Sugar cane, which is processed into sugar, and cocoa, a key ingredient in chocolate, are especially sensitive to periods of low rainfall in the tropical regions where those crops grow.

The United States relies on sugar imports from Mexico, which saw sugar production fall by more than 15 per cent this year as a result of drought conditions. The price of raw sugar traded in global markets, recently around 27 cents per pound, was the highest since 2011.

Parts of Asia, home to several top sugar producers, have also experienced dry weather that hit harvests. India, one of the largest sugar producers in the world, has restricted sugar exports to protect its domestic supply.

“The US candy consumer is essentially paying the price for poor crops in Mexico and also Asia,” said John Stansfield, a senior sugar analyst at commodity data platform DNEXT.

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For candy makers, sugar is a more forgiving ingredient than cocoa because when sugar cane is scarce or expensive, the industry can lean on sugar beets, a crop that grows in colder climates and can also be refined into sugar.

Cocoa only grows in areas near the equator, primarily in West Africa, which has experienced drought over the past year. The effect on prices has been severe: In commodity markets, cocoa has recently traded above US$3,800 per tonne, the highest since the 1970s.

Shoppers are still expected to spend big this Halloween. Americans are expected to spend US$3.6 billion on Halloween candy this year, up 16 per cent from last year, according to the National Retail Federation. NYTIMES