WITH the world economy emerging from a growth scare in the fourth quarter of 2018, we were confident that the US and global economies were steadily recovering and not headed towards a recession.
Our expectation was that the recovery may take a few more quarters to take hold, based on a combination of cyclical and structural trends.
That all changed on May 10, when an increase in tariffs on Chinese imports announced by US President Donald Trump took effect, reviving the game of tariffs between China and the US that has been a drag on the global economy.
Despite the tensions, we believe the medium-term growth story remains intact, but may be delayed. In fact, these trade tensions may increase the...
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