WHEN Iran’s missiles whizzed towards Israel on Saturday (Apr 13) night , oil markets were closed. When they opened on Monday, their reaction was a loud “meh”. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped below US$90 a barrel. It has since hovered around that level.

Traders had expected an attack of precisely this variety: big enough to cause concern; obvious enough to be foiled. They are now betting that Israel will avoid anything too rash in response.

Yet, even if oil prices do not surge, they remain uncomfortably elevated and seem likely to rise higher still in the summer, when increasing demand amid tight supply will probably tip the market into deficit. A cast of decision-makers – from central bankers to US President Joe Biden, who faces re-election in November – is watching anxiously.