GLOBAL supply-chain bottlenecks, energy shocks, squeezed real incomes, tighter financial conditions, a fresh Covid wave - the ship that is the global economy is probably too loaded down to hope for calm sailing.
New manufacturing orders have plunged and we have rapidly shifted from input scarcity to excess inventories in several sectors. After the sharp post-Covid rebound, industrial activity and international trade are likely to suffer in the second half of the year.
As a result, the 'R' word is on people's lips again. Leading indicators are pointing towards a heightened risk of recession in the US, beginning in early 2023 based on economists' consensus.
At the same time, the war in Ukraine continues...
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