Barclays keeps 2021 oil price outlook, supported by vaccine boost

[BENGALURU] Barclays kept its "above consensus" 2021 oil price forecasts on Monday, predicting Brent at US$53 a barrel based on output discipline by Opec and its allies, and based on a potential Covid-19 vaccine boosting demand in the second half.

Potential rollouts of high-efficacy vaccines in the short term would be a turning point for demand as it could lead to a more sustainable economic recovery, the bank said in a note.

It forecast Brent at an average US$53 a barrel and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at US$50 per barrel in 2021.

Sources have told Reuters that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and its allies, known as Opec+, are leaning towards postponing of a planned January increase to oil output by at least three months.

Opec+ was due to raise output by 2 million barrels per day in January as part of a steady easing of record supply cuts agreed this year.

"We expect the Opec+ group to delay the ratcheting up of production targets by three months when the group meets later this month," the bank said.

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Goldman Sachs also said this month that it expected the group to delay their planned output increase.

Brent traded around US$45.30 on Monday and WTI was around US$43, lifted by optimism about a recovery in demand thanks to successful coronavirus vaccine trials, although new lockdowns around the world capped gains.

REUTERS