Singapore tourist arrivals may fall 25-30% due to virus outbreak: STB

VISITOR arrivals to Singapore may fall by 25 to 30 per cent this year due to the novel coronavirus outbreak, after four straight years of growth in arrivals and receipts, said the Singapore Tourism Board (STB) at its annual year-in-review on Tuesday.

While hard to estimate, the decline in receipts is likely to be "roughly in line" with the decline in arrivals, said STB chief executive Keith Tan.

The situation in 2020 will be "at least as severe as Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome), and probably worse", he said. Arrivals fell 19 per cent during the 2003 Sars crisis but had a V-shaped recovery, rising year on year about eight months after Singapore was declared Sars-free.

"This time around, I'm not counting on a V-shaped recovery," Mr Tan told media. But when the rebound comes, the tourism sector aims to make it a strong one, with a public-private sector task force being formed for this purpose.

Singaporeans and residents "play an important part in recovery", said Sentosa Development Corporation chief executive Quek Swee Kuan, who urged locals to get out more and consume tourism, hospitality and lifestyle services here.

In 2019, both visitor arrivals and tourism receipts rose, though the latter underperformed forecasts. Visitor arrivals were up 3.3 per cent year-on-year at 19.1 million, coming in at the higher end of the forecast range of 18.7 million to 19.2 million.

Preliminary estimates put tourism receipts at S$27.1 billion, up 0.5 per cent year-on-year but missing the forecast of S$27.3 billion to S$27.9 billion.

Receipts fell for accommodation (-7 per cent), food and beverage (-5 per cent), and sightseeing, entertainment, and gaming (-2 per cent).

However, shopping receipts were up 3 per cent, and other tourism receipts rose 4 per cent, including higher airfare revenue due to more visitor arrivals via local-based carriers.

Seeing worse performance was the business travel and meetings, incentive travel, conventions and exhibitions (BTMICE) sector. From January to September 2019, BTMICE tourism receipts - excluding sightseeing, entertainment, and gaming - were down 7 per cent from the year-ago period at S$3.2 billion.

STB attributed it to fewer BTMICE arrivals - which fell 8 per cent to 1.8 million - and macroeconomic uncertainties affecting spending. The sector tends to do worse in odd years.

Before the virus hit, the sector was "ready for a good year" in 2020, said Singapore Association of Convention & Exhibition Organisers and Suppliers president Aloysius Arlando.

On the bright side, most events are being postponed rather than cancelled. The association is working with organisers and venues to manage the eventual bunching that may happen in the second half of the year, and Singapore has a strong pipeline for H2 and beyond, Mr Arlando added.

The hotel industry saw growth across all indicators. Total gazetted hotel room revenue rose 5.5 per cent to S$4.2 billion, with the average occupancy rate up at 87.1 per cent, from 86 per cent previously.

Average room rates rose to S$221 from S$218 previously, and revenue per available room hit S$193, up from S$188.

In the cruise industry, passenger throughput fell 2.5 per cent to 1.8 million, but this was largely due to Royal Caribbean International's Voyager of the Seas being dry-docked for over a month for refurbishment. Foreign cruise throughput grew 3.5 per cent, while ship calls rose 3.2 per cent to 414.

China remained the top source market in 2019, accounting for 3.6 million visitors and S$3.2 billion in receipts. It was among 11 of Singapore's top 15 source markets to see arrival numbers grow, and one of nine where arrivals hit new highs.

But the novel coronavirus has already had a significant impact on arrivals, with an estimated 18,000 to 20,000 international visitor arrivals being lost each day. Most are from China, given entry restrictions, but arrivals from other key source markets are also expected to fall due to lower travel confidence globally.

Some attractions have seen visitors fall by up to 60 per cent in the last 10 to 12 days, said Association of Singapore Attractions executive committee member Kevin Cheong. At Sentosa, businesses have seen visitors and sales decline by 20 to 50 per cent since early February, said Mr Quek from Sentosa Development Corporation.

Mr Quek hopes to attract more locals to mitigate the loss of foreign tourists. For a start, island admission will be waived for the upcoming school holidays from Mar 14 to 22.

Asked about the risk of countries issuing travel advisories on Singapore, Mr Tan said the STB sees "no reason" to do so and is working with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs on this.

A Tourism Recovery Action Task Force comprising public and private sector leaders will come up with strategies and plans for recovery.

Among other things, they will identify opportunities arising from the coronavirus crisis, take measures to instil confidence in tourism establishments here, and co-create and initiate recovery plans. More details will be announced at a later date.

The STB highlighted new and rejuvenated offerings such as the Magical Shores attraction at Siloso Beach, continued progress on projects such as the Mandai Nature Precinct and the Sentosa-Brani masterplan, and a pipeline of BTMICE events in 2020 and beyond, including gamescom asia 2020.

Having seen good response in the expression of interest exercise for an integrated tourism project at Jurong Lake District, STB is launching a request for proposal later this year.