THE total solar and wind power generation in South-east Asia has grown from just 4.2 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2015 to over 50 TWh last year, largely driven by government policies to promote renewables deployment.

But the pace of growth is getting weaker – the region had an average annual growth rate of 43 per cent since 2015, but this slowed to 15 per cent in 2022.

These findings were published in a report that was released on Thursday (Nov 16) by UK-based not-for-profit energy think tank Ember.

Dinita Setyawati, a senior electricity policy analyst who authored the report, said: “We have seen some great progress with clean energy growing rapidly in some Asean countries, supported by strong policies.

“Solar and wind are among the most promising technologies capable of creating new markets, fostering job creations, enabling a just energy transition and ensuring a resilient, energy-secure Asean.”

Vietnam spearheading growth

The report identified Vietnam as the main driver behind the region’s growth over the years, accounting for 69 per cent of the total solar and wind generation in 2022.

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In 2017, Vietnam introduced a tariff programme that ushered in a golden era for solar power in the country. There was a boost in investments after power plant owners were guaranteed a fixed, premium price for solar-generated electricity. They also enjoyed tax exemptions.

The scheme, however, was phased out between 2021 and 2022 and that proved to be a key factor in the overall slowdown of the region’s solar growth, said the report. There were cuts to the utilisation of solar power from plants before a new pricing mechanism was determined, said Dr Setyawati.

Even so, solar and wind power generation made up 13 per cent of Vietnam’s total power generation last year – the highest in South-east Asia.

The region’s overall growth trends do not necessarily reflect that of specific countries. “If we look at individual countries’ trends, solar generation growth rose in 2022 compared to 2021 in Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand and Singapore,” said Dr Setyawati.

Potential in Thailand, Philippines

Thailand has the largest solar potential and the third-largest prospective wind capacity in the region, the report said.

In 2022, Thailand contributed 16 per cent of Asean’s total solar and wind power generation.

Thailand has a large power demand per capita – almost double the average in Asean – and its power generation is driven by a high reliance on fossil fuels.

The government has plans to add new capacity from renewable energy power plants by 2037, as well as implement a new price structure for renewable energy.

Over in the Philippines, the country – the second-largest nickel producer in South-east Asia – is likely to see an increase in energy demand from the mining industry.

Therefore, renewables offer opportunities for the decarbonisation of the industry, the report said. Last year, the archipelago contributed to 5 per cent of Asean’s total solar and wind power generation.

Untapped potential

Growth is expected to pick up again in 2023, the report noted.

This is due to big solar projects such as Indonesia’s 145-megawatt floating solar photovoltaic (PV) plant launched on Nov 9; Thailand’s renewables feed-in tariff scheme that took effect last year; and Vietnam’s introduction of auction mechanisms for the development of renewable energy projects.

Currently, more than 99 per cent of Asean’s potential remains untapped, the report said. The region’s installed capacity, or maximum potential output, in 2022 represents less than 1 per cent of its estimated theoretical potential.

“Asean countries have traditionally relied on various energy sources such as gas, coal, or hydropower to shape their energy landscapes. The electricity networks have been dependent on large power plants for transmission,” said Dr Setyawati.

She added that solar only formed a small part of electricity generation in the past, serving as distributed generation units for rural electrification, while wind farms were only developed after the introduction of feed-in tariffs.

Going forward, she said that strong policy support and government commitments remain critical to drive progress in the deployment of renewable energy.

“The region expects to boost the growth of clean power through policy support, such as auction mechanisms in Vietnam, green electricity tariffs in Malaysia, as well as rooftop solar PV system incentives and the development of battery energy storage systems in Thailand,” said the report.