Thailand’s top pro-democracy groups moved to begin talks on forming a government after a stronger-than-forecast showing in Sunday’s elections, with the head of the Move Forward party claiming a mandate to serve as the nation’s next prime minister. 

Pita Limjaroenrat took to Twitter early on Monday (May 15) morning to say he would be a prime minister for all, later adding that he’s reached out to five parties for support. With Move Forward leading in both total seats and popular votes, he won public backing from the Pheu Thai party that finished in second. 

“Today I’m ready to be Thailand’s 30th prime minister,” the Harvard-educated Pita, 42, wrote. “We have the same dreams and hopes and we believe that our beloved Thailand can be better.”

While pro-democracy groups were expected to do well, the two parties’ performance was a blow to the military-backed government of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, which took power in a 2014 coup. But that outcome is no guarantee of a quick path to power: Under Thailand’s constitution, the 250-member military-backed Senate is still a powerful bloc with influence in picking the next prime minister. 

“The path to forming a coalition will not be easy,” said Teerasak Siripant, managing director at BowerGroupAsia’s Thailand office. “With such an overwhelming victory, the establishment will only look to cap Pita’s power.” 

Pheu Thai is nevertheless ready to back Move Forward’s bid to form and lead a coalition and will not stand in its way, party leader Cholnan Srikaew told reporters on Monday.

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“Pheu Thai congratulates and accepts the fact that Move Forward has proposed to lead the formation of the new government,” Cholnan told reporters shortly after Pita’s remarks. “The party has no plan to compete with Move Forward Party in order to form the government.” 

Prayut and his United Thai Nation party were mostly muted following the rout. After almost nine years in power, the retired general said late Sunday that he would abide by the results. “I respect democracy and elections,” he said. 

There was little doubt that Thailand’s voters sent a message: turnout of more than 75 per cent was a record, according to the country’s Election Commission, with about 39 million people casting ballots. Move Forward took 32 of 33 seats in Bangkok, a near sweep that surprised both Pheu Thai and the conservatives.

The party’s performance shows “the people’s demand for change and reform, so it would behoove the establishment to make concessions and come to some kind of compromise instead of playing for keeps and risking everything,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok. 

If all the parties Pita reached out eventually join his coalition, he said that would give them 309 seats in the 500-seat lower house. 

That would be short of the 376 seats needed to ensure he was elected to the top job.

Asked about the upper house Senate, he said all sides must respect the election outcome and there was no use going against it.

“I am not worried but I am not careless,” he told a press conference.

“It will be quite a hefty price to pay if someone is thinking about debunking the election result or forming a minority government.”

One option might be for the coalition to sign up the Bhumjaithai party, which has 71 seats – either for a long-term deal or just for the PM vote.

Bhumjaithai – led by health minister Anutin Charnvirakul – were in the outgoing military-linked coalition, but they have shown themselves to be political chameleons over the years.

But Pita ruled out an alliance with the Bhumjaithai party – which emerged as a king-maker in the 2019 election on a vow to decriminalize marijuana, eventually working with Prayut’s military-backed party.  

Thailand’s markets reacted cautiously to the results. The benchmark SET Index slumped as much as 1.3 per cent, set for a third straight session of losses and continuing a trend of underperforming regional peers. The baht rose 0.7 per cent against the dollar. 

But after underperfoming regional peers, there have been positive signs recently for the nation’s US$506 billion economy. Tourism has rebounded quickly following the Covid-19 pandemic, and gross domestic product grew 2.7 per cent in the first quarter from a year earlier, above expectations. Domestic inflation returned to the central bank’s 1 per cent-3 per cent target in March.

“There is greater clarity now that the election is out of the way,” said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group. “This should favour Thai assets, which had been under some pressure last week in the lead-up to the election.”

Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput urged the next government to focus on fiscal consolidation.

“In terms of the fiscal impact on inflation, a lot of that will depend upon the nature of the spending that occurs,” Sethaput said in an interview with Bloomberg Television’s Haslinda Amin in Bangkok on Monday.

Investors will be watching closely to see how coalition talks proceed, and how Pita and any of his new partners navigate a delicate relationship with the current government and its influential backers.

The election results could put that more conservative establishment, centred around the monarchy helmed by King Maha Vajiralongkorn, in an awkward position. Move Forward was the only major party calling for changes to Article 112 to allow greater freedom to discuss the royal family. 

Addressing reporters on Monday, Pita vowed to press forward with that proposal, though some analysts have speculated that effort could be an early casualty if Pheu Thai or other parties push back on it. 

“Does the establishment have to adjust to Move Forward,” asked Isra Sunthornvut, a former member of parliament for the Democrat Party. “I think the question is does Move Forward have to adjust to the establishment because if they are part of the government, they have to play the game. To become the government, to become the prime minister, become ministers, you have to do the royal oath, you have to be there for the royals and you have to do all that kind of stuff.”

Pita moved quickly to sustain Move Forward’s momentum. He planned a Monday evening procession to the Democracy Monument in the centre of Bangkok, the site of 2020 youth protests and a symbolic sign of Thailand turning the page on yet another military government. 

“Change is possible if we act now,” he said. BLOOMBERG, REUTERS