THE economist Stephen Roach’s pessimistic conclusions about Hong Kong’s future have triggered a heated debate, though most of the angry reactions to the former Morgan Stanley Asia chair’s Financial Times article have been sparked by its provocative title: “It pains me to say Hong Kong is over.”

Is it? Any evaluation of the Chinese special territory’s prospects must go beyond the Hang Seng Index, a wealth marker typically associated with prosperity in a city purpose-built for commerce. Roach’s article notes how the benchmark has been basically flat since the former British colony’s 1997 handover to Beijing. In the past five years, the gauge has slumped by nearly 45 per cent.

While Hong Kong’s revival plan after several years of ennui may succeed, fail, or produce middling outcomes, the real question to ask is if policies are moving in the right direction and taking enough ordinary people along. Financial Secretary Paul Chan’s annual Budget on Wednesday (Feb 28) offers some clues.