[LONDON] The findings of a new poll in the UK suggests that the opposition Labour party will win the next general election – widely expected to take place towards the end of this year – by a landslide.

The survey of 15,000 voters in England, Scotland and Wales found that the ruling Conservative party is likely to retain just 98 seats. This is a far cry from the 365 seats it held after the last election in 2019 when former prime minister Boris Johnson led the party to a resounding victory.

The survey, commissioned by The Sunday Times newspaper, forecasts that Labour will sweep into power after the next election with as many as 468 members of parliament (MPs).

If this prediction comes true, it would mean that Labour leader Keir Starmer – whom many expect will succeed Rishi Sunak as Britain’s next prime minister – will have a majority of 286 lawmakers. The British parliament has a total of 650 seats.

The survey, which covered constituencies throughout the UK, found that as many as 13 ministers could lose their seats. They include Sunak himself, as well as Leader of the House Penny Mordaunt and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

A separate poll conducted by YouGov last week found that the Conservatives would fare slightly better and clinch 155 seats at the next election, although this would still give Labour a hefty majority with a projected win of 403 seats. This survey also predicted that Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt would be among the heavyweights to lose his parliamentary seat.

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YouGov surveyed 18,761 adults over a three-week period from Mar 7 to 27. This sample size is far larger than the usual opinion polls, with YouGov claiming that they have accurately predicted the outcomes of the last two elections.

The survey results aside, what’s clear is that the Conservative party is in deep trouble, with little time left to steady the ship. 

To date, 96 of its MPs have decided to call it quits before the election. They include former prime ministers Theresa May and Liz Truss; former chancellor of the exchequer Sajid Javid; former defence secretary Ben Wallace; former health secretary Matt Hancock; and former deputy prime minister Dominic Raab.

Over the past year, Starmer’s Labour party has consistently polled at least 20 points ahead of the Tories, which have been in power for the last 14 years. Sunak has said that he hoped a stronger UK economy and greater tax cuts would go a long way to attract disenchanted voters, although many political pundits seem to think otherwise.

Sunak has also promised that inflation will come down to more manageable levels by the time of the election, and that employment prospects will improve. He has also claimed that lower taxes, a better national health service, and greater control of immigration would help swing votes in his favour.

At the start of the year, Sunak made five pledges: halve inflation, grow the economy, reduce debt, cut waiting times at public hospitals, and stop small-boat crossings.

In the last three months or so, only inflation has fallen. The cost of living, soaring rents and high taxes are among the many reasons that are causing discontent among voters, said analysts and pundits.