Thailand’s opposition parties, which trounced their military-allied rivals in this week’s election, met for coalition talks on Wednesday (May 17) as the liberal Move Forward Party, which won the most votes, looks to form a government.

Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat was seen greeting senior officials from five other parties at a Bangkok restaurant before ushering them upstairs for closed-door talks.

Sunday’s vote saw Move Forward come in first ahead of another opposition party, the political heavyweight Pheu Thai, in a major blow to the establishment’s pro-military parties led by Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha.

Pita earlier this week said that together with five other opposition parties, his coalition will be able control about 310 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives.

The parties Pita has approached are Pheu Thai, Thai Sang Thai, Prachachart, Seri Ruam Thai and Fair parties.

Pheu Thai, which won the last five general elections but got pushed out of power each time, secured 141 seats, according to the latest projections, only 10 fewer than Move Forward.

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However, a military-drafted constitution requires more than half of votes in a joint sitting of a bicameral legislature for him to become prime minister. He would need votes either from government parties or an unelected 250-member Senate who have a record of supporting Prayuth and conservative forces.

Analysts expect weeks to months of talks and dealmaking as parties jostle to form a government.

The talks on Wednesday (May 17) will largely focus on government formation and future steps, Chaithawat Tulathon, Move Forward’s secretary-general, told reporters earlier in Bangkok.

“We’ll discuss preliminary details today, nothing deeper than that yet,” Chaithawat said. “Conditions and agreements on our main agendas that we’ll push together will be discussed at a later stage.” 

Investor reaction to Move Forward’s stunning election win has been mixed, with foreign funds pumping in about US$371 million into bonds this week while pulling a net US$53 million from stocks. The baht tumbled as much as 0.9 per cent to 34.250 per dollar on Wednesday, the biggest drop in six weeks.

The country’s main stock index has lost 2.5 per cent so far this week and on Wednesday it was headed for its lowest close since 2021. The selloff has been led by shares of some companies linked to tycoons who dominate sectors such as telecom and retail. 

The intense political jockeying and Senate’s opposition to Move Forward can potentially delay a government formation for months, with some analysts pointing to the risk of a new budget bill for 2023-24 being delayed to next year. 

Some members of the Senate, stacked with allies of the pro-military establishment of Prayuth, have vowed to block Pita’s bid for the top job. Under Thailand’s constitution, the 250-member Senate gets to vote alongside the 500-member lower house in picking the next prime minister until early 2024.

Much of the senators’ opposition to Pita comes from Move Forward’s pledge to amend the lese majeste law, which punishes criticism against King Maha Vajiralongkorn and other members of the royal family. 

Thaksin Shinawatra, the influential former premier who lives in exile, said Pheu Thai or anyone from his family won’t back any legislation that could hurt the monarchy. Paetongtarn, Thaksin’s daughter and one of Pheu Thai’s prime ministerial candidates, said this week her party was open to discussing change to the controversial lese majeste in parliament.

For now, Move Forward is focused on talks within the coalition, Chaithawat said, adding that if there’s a chance the party will reach out to as many Senators as possible to address their concerns.

Supporters and allies of the Harvard-educated Pita have also mounted pressure on the Senate to back the popular mandate. There have also been calls for parties in the outgoing coalition, such as Democrat and Bhumjaithai – which together have won 96 seats and have previously opposed the Senate’s role in choosing the prime minister – to back Pita as the next leader. 

Alongkorn Ponlaboot, a deputy leader of the Democrat, said he will propose a motion to endorse Pita at a key party meeting next week. If approved, the endorsement from Democrat will come with no strings attached, he said. 

Bhumjaithai has remained silent on support for Pita, though it has said it supported Move Forward’s move to form the government first. Pheu Thai reiterated on Wednesday that it had no plan to compete with Move Forward. 

Pita, who has called for reconciliation after the bitterly fought elections, told CNN in an interview on Tuesday that he’s prepared “a strategic response” for different scenarios in the light of the tussle with the Senate.

But there’s unlikely to be any quick solution to the stalemate, according to Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist at Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. The political uncertainty over who gets to rule Thailand next will last at least until the election officials certify the results, which may throw up some twists, he said.

“It’s a difficult situation to navigate,” Yuttaporn said. “Move Forward needs to reach out for talks. Forming a government isn’t just about securing a majority under this abnormal political climate.” REUTERS, BLOOMBERG