A YEAR and a half since Russia’s invasion, there are growing signs that the Ukraine war could continue into 2024. However, while peace seems far away, right now, much thinking is already going on across the world about the shape of an agreement to end hostilities – from Beijing to Brussels, and Washington, DC to Wellington – so that multibillion dollar reconstruction can move into full swing.

The rebuilding of Ukraine will resemble that of Western Europe after World War II, Eastern Europe after the Cold War, and the Western Balkans after the violent break-up of Yugoslavia. It will cost many hundreds of billions of dollars, and be the most ambitious post-war reconstruction effort in modern times.

The broad sweep of 20th-century history shows that wars that have ended in conclusive, lasting ways have generally been preceded by decisive military victories on the ground. A standout example here is the allied victory in World War II, which paved the way for reconstruction in nations such as Japan and Germany.