TAIWAN President Tsai Ing-wen’s current trip abroad is ostensibly to visit the self-governing island’s few remaining allies in Latin America. However, it is her stopovers in the United States – Taiwan’s unofficial partner and supplier of arms – that is the focus of attention in Beijing and, indeed, all of East Asia.

If all goes according to script, US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy will meet Tsai on Wednesday (Apr 5) as she transits in Los Angeles on her way home. Of course, it will be a staged meeting, although both sides will seek to depict it as a casual encounter. And clearly, Beijing is not buying any of it; it has warned that a Tsai-McCarthy tete-a-tete in any guise would be a provocation that “undermines peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait”. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province to be reunited with the mainland by force if necessary.

On the face of it, East Asia may again be set to see a display of China’s wrath. When previous House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last year, Beijing staged military drills with more than 100 fighter jets and bombers and 10 warships. Missiles were launched, the US ambassador to China was summoned to hear an official protest, and Beijing banned some farm imports from Taiwan. There seems to be an assumption both in Taipei and Washington that Beijing will react again in similar proportions and that the matter will die down in due course. In short, they both can ride out the storm.