POLITICIANS often describe upcoming ballots as the most important in a generation, if not ever, but that tagging could be accurate in the European Union’s (EU) fifth most populous nation Poland this weekend.

In what may prove an era-defining election – which opposition leader Donald Tusk has billed as their “most important since 1989 and the fall of communism” – a populist, right-wing United Right coalition, led by the Law and Justice Party (PiS), is seeking a third term in office, unprecedented in Poland in the post-Cold War era. PiS is being challenged by an opposition coalition led by Tusk, a former prime minister of Poland from 2007 to 2014, who later became president of the European Council, one of the top two EU jobs in Brussels.

Poland is the most powerful nation in East and Central Europe, a bloc of countries which has become more influential in recent years. The strategic importance of Poland and neighbouring nations has grown as they are at the “front line” of the Ukraine crisis with EU and Nato partners pumping in money and military support. This has accentuated a two-decade long process whereby Eastern states have become more important in Europe, for reasons including their economic convergence with the West.