How to trade an election
It is becoming harder for investors to ignore politics
INVESTORS differ in their approach to elections. Some see politics as an edge to exploit; others as noise to block out. Even for those without a financial interest, markets offer a brutally frank perspective on the economic stakes. As elections approach in America and Britain, as well as plenty of other countries, that is especially valuable.
Take what happened before and after America’s presidential election in 2020. Green-energy and cannabis stocks briefly became market darlings as the odds of a victory for Joe Biden rose, since investors expected his administration to enact policies favourable to both. Exchange-traded funds covering the sectors rallied by over 100 per cent from two months before the election to Biden’s inauguration, before later dropping as investors scaled back their optimism.
What are markets saying about the current race for the White House? The candidates’ agendas are similar in places. Both tilt protectionist (though Trump’s plans are more radical); both would oversee hefty deficits (though with different beneficiaries).
KEYWORDS IN THIS ARTICLE
BT is now on Telegram!
For daily updates on weekdays and specially selected content for the weekend. Subscribe to t.me/BizTimes
Opinion & Features
Building Singapore’s next-gen advanced manufacturing facility
Share buybacks offer window into Seatrium board’s perspective on its stock’s value
You can’t shake it off – deepfakes are here
US-China cooperation remains possible
OCBC-GE: We aim to continue to drive synergy and collaboration
Greater economic protectionism may follow European election