SINGAPORE’S non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank 3.4 per cent year on year in October, continuing to ease from steeper falls in the preceding months, data from Enterprise Singapore (EnterpriseSG) showed on Friday (Nov 17).

The October figure marked an easing from September’s 13.2 per cent fall, and was also better than the 6 per cent contraction that private-sector economists polled by Bloomberg were expecting. Both electronics and non-electronics exports continued to fall on a year-on-year basis, but less sharply.

The latest figures suggest that NODX could return to positive growth in the next two months, especially given the low year-ago base, said private-sector economists.

“Base effects were supportive in October, and will become more supportive over the coming months,” said DBS economist Chua Han Teng.

Maybank economists Chua Hak Bin and Brian Lee agreed: “We expect NODX to recover to positive growth in November or December, flattered by a low base.” However, they maintained their full-year forecast for NODX to contract by between 9 per cent and 12 per cent.

OCBC chief economist Selena Ling expects full-year NODX to decline 12.5 per cent year on year, but added: “At least the recent tea-leaves suggest that the global electronics cycle may have bottomed and is looking to stabilise in the months ahead.”

GET BT IN YOUR INBOX DAILY

Start and end each day with the latest news stories and analyses delivered straight to your inbox.

Sign UpVIEW ALL

On a month-on-month seasonally adjusted basis, NODX grew 3.4 per cent in October, extending the previous month’s 11.1 per cent growth, as both electronics and non-electronics exports rose.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, NODX value reached S$15 billion, up from S$14.5 billion in September. But it was still lower than the year-ago level of S$15.8 billion in October 2022, as well as the 2022 average of S$16.6 billion.

Electronics exports shrank for the 15th consecutive month, down 5.6 per cent year on year. But this was an improvement from the 11.6 per cent contraction in September. Integrated circuits (-17.6 per cent), diodes and transistors (-19.8 per cent) and parts of PCs (-22.9 per cent) contributed the most to October’s fall.

Non-electronics shipments fell 2.7 per cent in October, easing from the preceding month’s 13.7 per cent contraction. Contributing the most to the drop were food preparations (-41.7 per cent), non-electric engines and motors (-55.4 per cent) and electrical machinery (-29.7 per cent).

October’s decline in NODX was due mainly to falls in exports to Taiwan, the US and South Korea, which are in Singapore’s top 10 markets. But exports rose to China, the European Union, Thailand and Hong Kong.

OCBC’s Ling highlighted how NODX to China has risen by double digits for the second consecutive month, due in part to the low base a year ago. This suggests that the Chinese economy has “likely bottomed”, even though the recovery pace remains uneven, she added.

Total trade rose 0.3 per cent year on year, reversing from the 12.5 per cent contraction in September. Total exports grew 2.8 per cent, reversing from the previous month’s 12.8 per cent decline. Total imports fell 2.3 per cent, improving from the previous month’s 12.2 per cent contraction.

On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, total trade was up 5.3 per cent in October, following September’s 3.9 per cent increase.

The level of total trade reached S$108.9 billion in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, higher than the previous month’s S$103.4 billion.