WE ARE calling 2024 the year of the funambulist or tightrope walker, as we see economies walking a fine line to avoid a severe recession.
A substantial slowdown in global growth is likely, with global gross domestic product growth declining from 3 per cent in 2023 to 2.8 per cent in 2024. The United States will likely have a mild recession in the first half, while Europe can avoid a severe recession and recover in H2.
Advanced economies are mostly responsible for the weak momentum of world economic growth, while emerging markets should remain more resilient, with Asia ex-Japan likely to be the main contributor.
As inflation further decelerates in most developed markets, we expect central banks...
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